Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

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HJ1an
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Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby HJ1an » Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:41 am

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-46014260

Lion Air flight JT 610 has crashed into the sea, with nearly 190 people on board, shortly after taking off from the Indonesian capital, Jakarta.

A lot of attention has focused on the fact the plane, a Boeing 737 MAX 8, was brand new. This is the first major incident involving that kind of plane.

Details so far have been scant and the cause will not be confirmed until a full investigation has been carried out.


I don't really want to be the first one to initiate the discussion, but then here we are. Firstly, it is just sad and tragic that these things happen, lives have been lost, and the attention now turns to Boeing's not-3-month 737 Max in the hands of Lion Air.

Apparently the speed and altitude instrument might play a role. And then one might also point to Indonesia's atrocious aviation accident history.

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Re: Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby 123apple » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:18 pm

First black box recovered:

http://avherald.com/img/lionair_b38m_pk ... 1029_4.jpg

I was wondering if perhaps it could not have been a flap overspeed and damage associated with faulty airspeed instrumentation (reading much too low?) therefore causing the aircraft to enter a steep bank (assuming the flap on one side broke off?) and subsequent crash?

ADS-B data suggests something catastrophic in the last few seconds with vertical speeds of up to -30000 feet per minute (!).

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Re: Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby jwocky » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:24 pm

It will take months till we get the full report, but let me look at some things we learned from the past in general:

1.) Any new plane model is for a while a little bit more vulnerable to pilot errors and pilot mis-reactions in case of a crisis. For example the British Midlands crash basically happened not only because of a technical problem but became mostly tragic because the crew reacted wrong on it. They just had changed from 737-300 to 737-400 and the -400 had the A/C pack on the other side. Result: 1 engine out due to technical problems, 2 engine switched out by crew who didn't believe the instruments - and she had only two, so she went down.

2.) Asian cockpit crews in general have a tendency to fly autopilot only. If the computer is confused by anything, they can't just switch the box off and turn around home to land. The same plane, the day before, another pilot: The crew made a request to return, but then didn't return and continued the flight. The passengers describe sudden altitude drops, banking to this and that side ... so, I ask you: If you would play FG and your plane would behave that way, would you continue or return? But those crews are RL and they have no idea how to return without AP.

3.) Maintenance is a problem in many countries and with many airlines. Nobody really want to spend money for maintenance. Nobody wants to pay the flight crews enough to effort decent hotels either. But in countries like most in Europe and in the US for example, we have this nasty attitude to send even managers to jail if they get too filthy on those things. That keeps them somewhat I would like to call "partially honest". In other countries, and history shows, Indonesia is one of them, airlines underpay the crews, hire the cheapest mechanics they can find, shorten the time for maintenance as much as they can and yes, forged spare parts were also a problem in Indonesia in the past.
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SHM
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Re: Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby SHM » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:59 pm

Some new update on the crash:
On Nov 5th 2018, following the KNKT release confirming airspeed indicator problems during the last 4 flights of the aircraft, a tweet posted on Oct 29th 2018 at 07:07Z by Razaan Botutihe gained sufficient weight to be rated as factual. The tweet states concerning flight JT-43 from Denpasar (Indonesia) to Jakarta, the last flight the aircraft completed: "Airspeed unreliable and alt disagree shown after take off. STS was also running to the wrong direction, suspected because of speed difference. Identified that CAPT instrument was unreliable and handover control to FO. Continue NNC of Airspeed Unreliable and ALT disagree." (Editorial Notes: STS: speed trim system. As far as is known so far the accident crew managed to control the aircraft for 12 minutes from takeoff to maintaining 5000 feet at about 290-310 knots over ground between 5000 and 5400 feet, which suggests they were flying on pitch and power for that time, it thus appears something beyond unreliable airspeed and altitude must have contributed to the loss of control in minute 13.) In addition three different versions of a maintenance logbook were leaked to the Internet, after a closer look they all appeared to show the same log book at different point in time. Apart from the remark of unreliable airspeed and altitude, which prompted the flushing of the captain's static ports, an entry for elevator feel computer light illuminated was written down by the flight crew of JT-93 (presumably a typo and believed to be JT-43), maintenance opened and cleaned a cannon plug connector for the elevator feel computer, checks by the Aviation Herald with AMEs and related Maintenance Manuals confirmed the log book appeared authentic, the maintenance activity concerning that plug however could not have changed the forces on the pitch control of the yoke, only the status and error messages concerning the system could have been affected by the maintenance activity. The elevator feel computer has its own static and dynamic ports positioned at the tail of the aircraft, is purely mechanical with no electronic components except for some status monitoring, depends on hydraulic systems A and B available and does not depend on the instrumentation/Air Data References used for pilot instrumentation.

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HJ1an
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Re: Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby HJ1an » Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:56 am

In Wikipedia (yes, yes, it's not really a reliable source of info) :

"Detailed reports from the Bali to Jakarta incident, the flight prior to Flight 610, in which the aircraft was involved, revealed that the aircraft had suffered a serious incident. Passengers in the cabin reported heavy shaking and a smell of burnt rubber inside the cabin. At some point, the aircraft had dropped for more than 200 ft in a few seconds. Many of the passengers were left traumatized by the incident.[112] The seat belt sign was never turned off from take off to landing. The ATC recording indicated that the pilot had called for "pan-pan", which experts call as the second highest alert level after Mayday call. However, the crew of the flight decided to continue the flight to Jakarta.[113] A photo of the aircraft's logbook revealed that during that flight, the aircraft suffered an unspecified navigation failure on the pilot's side, while the co-pilot's side was reported to be in good condition.........

...............Further examination on the aircraft's instruments revealed that the aircraft's airspeed indicator had malfunctioned for its last four flights.......................


...............Report stated that, based on the preliminary findings, the aircraft could abruptly dive by mistake. If there's a malfunction in the aircraft's AOA sensors, the aircraft's computer, which is designed to prevent an aerodynamic stall, may think that the aircraft is stalling. Thus, it may cause an abrupt dive. The Federal Aviation Administration urged every airline which uses the Boeing 737 MAX 8 to heed the warnings.

.........................On 7 November, the NTSC confirmed that there had been problems with Flight 610's angle of attack (AOA) sensors.

................... Initially, the aircraft suffered an airspeed indicator problem for its last four flights. The penultimate flight was the Bali to Jakarta flight. Thinking that it would fix the problem, the engineers in Bali then replaced the aircraft AOA sensors, but the problem persisted. A 20 degree difference between the AOA left sensor and right sensor was recorded. The NTSC confirmed that Flight 610 suffered the same problem with the Bali to Jakarta flight. Just minutes after takeoff, the aircraft abruptly dived. The crew of that flight, however, had managed to control the aircraft and decided to fly at a lower than normal altitude."



What the heck - if this is to be believed, this plane is in a totally unflyable state, let along used for service duty. They probably needed to run a test flight and check again before letting it go back to service duty. The fact that the plane had problems right from the beginning and was not fixed for many flights, they really needed to take it out of commission for further testing before putting it back into service after it's been tested and proven that it would be air worthy before putting it back into a commercial flying pilot's hands - who may not even be aware of the problems with the planes... and like Jwocky said.. who may be too dependable on ap, unfamiliar with its characteristics, may have been unable to deal with what all the previous pilots were able to deal with previously.
Last edited by HJ1an on Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:01 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby HJ1an » Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:00 am

It also raises a fear I have been bringing up about for some time previously.... there unnecessary need for to rush for new planes and new pilots are really pushing the limits on churning out and training new pilots, making new planes, new air traffic controllers, becoming (over)reliant on machines and making use of ever tightening of airspaces and ground spaces (runway clearances, taxiway clearances, airport apron & hangars).

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Re: Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby HJ1an » Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:54 am

Another flight control issue!?

Air Astana has SERIOUS FLIGHT CONTROL ISSUES!


I hope you guys can see the videos attached; it doesn't show up on my copmuter for some reason..
From a comment in the vid:

It Was going back home after a C-check in Alverca. Swapped aileron controls (so when a right input, the a/c would turn left and vice-versa). Only elevators, rudder and thrust available to control the aircraft. As far as I've heard from someone who talked to the crew when things were settled down on ground, no issues when the autopilot was connected, but as soon as they would disconnect it, the controls were lost everytime. One of the four tonneaux ended at around 4000ft on a 90º nose down attitude. Adding to these awkward conditions, the wheather here in Lisbon area have been awfull the whole day with pouring rain, heavy clouds and low ceiling, so they had no visual geographic references, plus they were unfamiliar with the terrain and there's where the F-16s came in, to guide the E190 to a safer place. After "learning" to control the plane, all calmed down a little bit, but they needed an airport with better weather/visual conditions and Beja was the best(first option was sunny Algarve's Faro), which is also in a sparsely populated (thus the lowest FR24 coverage, adding to the fact that the a/c doesn't have ADS-B and only shows up in MLAT) area so in case of a crash, the possibility of having victims on the ground was much lower. On the first landing attempt, the aircraft wasn't well aligned to the runway so a go around was performed. On the second attempt they were a bit too high and went around again, before finally successfully landing on the third attempt. Of the 6 pob, two were taken to a local hospital with minor injuries and a third person, someone from the administration of Air Astana was reporting some heart issued ans was also taken to the hospital, which all three left by the beginning of the evening."




123apple
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Re: Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby 123apple » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:19 pm

Did they have aileron control or not? It sounds like they had it, but reversed?

Sounds like a scary situation :O

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Re: Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby HJ1an » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:56 am

Sounds like it was reversed, but the problem could be much more than it seems. It took them going around in circles for almost an hour in the sky before they 'fixed' the problem (or realized the issue?)

It's hard to imagine how one would be thinking if the ailerons were reversed. Would you realize it immediately? Would you be confused? Apparently there was bad visibility? Even so, how much time would you need to realize this reversal even without a good visual out and just based on the artificial horizon ?

I can imagine (probably) that they would be confused to heck, but it does seem to take a long time for them to realize the reversal - if indeed it is just a reversal of the controls... (there may be more to it).

e.g. if you reversed the ailerons in FG, how long would one take to realize this is happening? I don't think it would take long unless there is some other problem.. but then.. that's just my opinion.

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Re: Lion Air: How could a brand new plane crash?

Postby jwocky » Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:15 pm

The open question with Lion Air 610 seems to be though, why, if the computer was confused, the crew was unable to go manual and fly the plane back. They were not far from the airport, visibility was good, weather was good, so why not?
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